NFL Weekly Updating Data - A Hugo website

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1. WR Separation Data

This graphic shows Average Separation and Average Yards After Catch Over Expected. These are two important metrics on receiver performance. Separation may be the most important thing a WR can generate in football. Combining that with how well they do with the ball in their hands can paint a decent picture of how they are performing. It can be seen that Deebo Samuel is in a world of his own this year. His separation may be somewhat accredited to Shanahan route designs, but it cannot be understated how well he was as a playmaker this season.

2. Team Receiver Data

This graphic shows Team Separation and Cushion data. This is important because it can show how teams are being played defensively and how they perform against that.

3. aDot

This graphic shows the Average Time to Throw to the Average Intended Air Yards From the Sticks. This means that Y=0 is the first down. This is meant to show how QBs are getting the ball out. The upper left is the best place to be. It means these passers are getting the ball out quickly AND farther than average. Conversely, the bottom right is a bad place to be. It means these passers hang on to the ball long AND throw it shorter than average.

4. QB Sack Data

Not all sacks are created equal. A sack on 1st and 10 is most likely much worse than a sack on 3rd and 20. It can ruin a drive or can be almost the same as an incompletion. This graphic shows how much EPA is being lost on average and in total. The outliers are what should be noted most from this graphic. Wentz is a catastrophe, whereas Burrow lost the most EPA but wasn’t killing the Bengals every time he did it. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are freaks and it is interesting to see if the sack “avoiders” remain this way year over year.`

**EPA Lost From Sacks**

	name	av_epa_lost	total_epa_lost	team	Sacks

1	L.Jackson	-1.32	-50.12	BAL	38
2	J.Allen	-1.37	-38.48	BUF	28
3	T.Bridgewater	-1.48	-45.8	DEN	31
4	A.Rodgers	-1.54	-53.85	GB	35
5	K.Murray	-1.63	-53.7	ARI	33
6	P.Mahomes	-1.65	-60.89	KC	37
7	J.Herbert	-1.71	-53.15	LAC	31
8	D.Prescott	-1.72	-60.35	DAL	35
9	S.Darnold	-1.73	-60.61	CAR	35
10	J.Garoppolo	-1.74	-57.34	SF	33
11	J.Burrow	-1.76	-123.03	CIN	70
12	T.Heinicke	-1.76	-66.95	WAS	38
13	D.Mills	-1.78	-55.08	HOU	31
14	J.Hurts	-1.79	-50.22	PHI	28
15	R.Tannehill	-1.8	-86.59	TEN	48
16	M.Ryan	-1.81	-72.57	ATL	40
17	Z.Wilson	-1.81	-79.66	NYJ	44
18	R.Wilson	-1.84	-60.56	SEA	33
19	T.Brady	-1.87	-54.19	TB	29
20	B.Mayfield	-1.88	-80.72	CLE	43
21	T.Tagovailoa	-1.88	-37.67	MIA	20
22	M.Stafford	-1.91	-70.65	LA	37
23	D.Carr	-1.93	-83.07	LV	43
24	B.Roethlisberger	-1.94	-77.42	PIT	40
25	M.Jones	-1.99	-61.73	NE	31
26	T.Lawrence	-2.05	-65.5	JAX	32
27	D.Jones	-2.07	-45.57	NYG	22
28	K.Cousins	-2.08	-58.14	MIN	28
29	J.Fields	-2.1	-75.77	CHI	36
30	J.Goff	-2.18	-76.18	DET	35
31	C.Wentz	-2.4	-76.91	IND	32

5. QB Data

6. Situational Regressions

**EPA Regressions**

	EPA
	Play Type and Down	First Down	Fourth Down	QB Scramble
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)

2nd Down	0.020
	(0.016)

3rd Down	0.003
	(0.019)

4th Down	0.119^***
	(0.043)

Rush Attempt	-0.004	-0.113^***	0.147
	(0.030)	(0.016)	(0.233)

Pass Attempt	0.035		-0.514^**
	(0.029)		(0.208)

QB Scramble				0.415^***
				(0.042)

Constant	-0.024	0.045^***	0.323^*	-0.006
	(0.029)	(0.011)	(0.171)	(0.007)

Observations	38,105	16,582	1,081	40,484
R²	0.000	0.003	0.012	0.002
Adjusted R²	0.000	0.003	0.010	0.002
Residual Std. Error	1.368 (df = 38099)	1.022 (df = 16580)	2.726 (df = 1078)	1.328 (df = 40482)
F Statistic	3.250^*** (df = 5; 38099)	50.659^*** (df = 1; 16580)	6.581^*** (df = 2; 1078)	96.921^*** (df = 1; 40482)

Notes:	^***Significant at the 1 percent level.
	^**Significant at the 5 percent level.
	^*Significant at the 10 percent level.

This is the second straight year that QB Scramble has over a 0.4 EPA coefficient. It is something I always thought about as QBs tend to not make mistakes on scrambles and can usually gain a few yards with their legs at the least. Many young QBs play far better out of structure as they can turn their processor off and just ball.

**Catch to Yards Correlation**

	Yards Gained
	Yards

Yards Gained	8.927^***
	(0.076)

Constant	2.048^***
	(0.042)

Observations	40,443
R²	0.256
Adjusted R²	0.256
Residual Std. Error	7.061 (df = 40441)
F Statistic	13,950.480^*** (df = 1; 40441)

Notes:	^***Significant at the 1 percent level.
	^**Significant at the 5 percent level.
	^*Significant at the 10 percent level.

This was purely made from a betting standpoint. Parlaying a receivers catch props with their receiving props can be profitable if

A. The book allows you.

B. They don’t take into account this colinearity.

For example, if I bet on a receiver to get 26 yards, they most likely need 2 or more catches to do so. This means if I expect them to get 26 yards, I should throw in the 2 catch prop as well.

The reason this matters is because books are betting that at least one of the bets won’t hit. In this situation, it is most likely that either 0 of 2 hit, or 2 of 2 hit.

This is very dependent on books NOT discounting for this colinearity. If they are, it needs to be analyzed at the discount rate they are using.

7. Rushing Data

**2020 EPA by Run Gap**

	Run Gap	Mean EPA	Plays

1	guard	-0.071	2000
2	tackle	-0.036	1876
3	end	0.101	2141

**2021 EPA by Run Gap**

	Run Gap	Mean EPA	Plays

1	guard	-0.043	2069
2	tackle	-0.017	1989
3	end	0.104	2176

8. Rushing Efficiency

9. Pure Passing EPA Table

**Passing EPA Leaders**

	Passer	Team	Mean EPA	Success Rate	Passes

1	P.Mahomes	KC	0.23	0.54	933
2	M.Stafford	LA	0.22	0.52	830
3	J.Allen	BUF	0.21	0.52	833
4	T.Brady	TB	0.17	0.51	879
5	J.Herbert	LAC	0.17	0.51	791
6	J.Garoppolo	SF	0.14	0.48	579
7	J.Burrow	CIN	0.14	0.49	793
8	T.Bridgewater	DEN	0.13	0.48	494
9	D.Prescott	DAL	0.13	0.49	753
10	K.Cousins	MIN	0.12	0.46	635
11	K.Murray	ARI	0.1	0.49	612
12	M.Jones	NE	0.1	0.5	640
13	D.Carr	LV	0.09	0.47	781
14	R.Tannehill	TEN	0.08	0.5	657
15	T.Tagovailoa	MIA	0.07	0.49	457
16	R.Wilson	SEA	0.06	0.45	482
17	C.Wentz	IND	0.06	0.46	620
18	J.Hurts	PHI	0.06	0.44	587
19	L.Jackson	BAL	0.05	0.49	493
20	B.Mayfield	CLE	0.02	0.44	514
21	M.Ryan	ATL	0	0.47	652
22	D.Jones	NYG	0	0.44	436
23	T.Heinicke	WAS	-0.02	0.46	610
24	B.Roethlisberger	PIT	-0.03	0.42	738
25	J.Goff	DET	-0.03	0.46	568
26	T.Lawrence	JAX	-0.07	0.45	704
27	D.Mills	HOU	-0.1	0.43	466
28	J.Fields	CHI	-0.1	0.43	374
29	S.Darnold	CAR	-0.13	0.43	487
30	Z.Wilson	NYJ	-0.15	0.38	467

10. Trick Play Passing Data

Just for fun!